How will the apparent attempt on Trump’s life change the campaign?

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. Today let’s talk about:

• The gunman on Trump’s golf course

• The battle for Nevada

• Harris’s economic stewardship

The US election has once again been rocked by a gunman.

There’s fresh uncertainty about how the final stretch of the election will play out after an apparent second assassination attempt on Donald Trump.

Trump now has the opportunity to revamp his campaign’s message and potentially regain momentum after struggling to adjust to Kamala Harris’s candidacy [free to read]. He was pushed further on to the back foot after his debate performance last week, leading some of his allies to become sceptical of the campaign’s path forward. 

The former president’s campaign was quick to use the attempt on his life to fundraise, asking supporters for contributions in a message that said Trump’s “resolve is only stronger” and that he “WILL NEVER SURRENDER”. Republicans are painting Trump as a political hero willing to sacrifice his own safety for a larger cause.

Trump has blamed Harris’s rhetoric for the latest violent threat: “Because of this Communist Left Rhetoric, the bullets are flying”, he posted on his Truth Social platform yesterday.

Both Trump and Harris will keep campaigning, though Democrats might have to tone down their direct attacks on Trump for a bit. On Sunday, Harris said that she was “deeply disturbed” by what happened and “we all must do our part to ensure that this incident does not lead to more violence”.

Meanwhile, federal prosecutors have filed gun charges against the suspected attacker, Ryan Wesley Routh, though his motive is still unclear. He faces up to 20 years in jail.  

Routh, who did not fire any shots at Trump, had previously been trying to recruit foreign fighters to help Ukraine’s war effort, so the incident could lead to renewed political debate about the US ally’s war with Russia.

The episode has also raised questions about the strength of the US Secret Service, with Biden saying yesterday that the agency “needs more help”, suggesting that Congress should allocate more funding to the service.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• It’s a “momentous” week for the US economy and Federal Reserve chair. An interest rate decision will be announced tomorrow, and with Wall Street boosting its bets on a jumbo cut, it could have an impact on the election.

• Trump and his sons are promoting a new crypto platform as the Republican presidential nominee courts the digital asset sector.

• Democrats are doing all they can to court US voters who live overseas, betting that they could help tip swing states on election day. 

• The most bizarre election conspiracy theory — that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio are eating pets — is tearing the Midwestern city apart. [Free to read]

• Vice-presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz are expected to make their pitches to CEOs at a Business Roundtable event on Thursday. (Politico)

• The former president is melting down over Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris. (The Washington Post)

Behind the scenes

The high cost of living in Nevada could sink Harris’s chances of winning the swing state on election day.

While business booms for Nevada’s iconic casinos, the middle class workers Harris is trying to win over are struggling. The state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the US, and the legacy of higher inflation is at the forefront of voters’ minds.

Some voters such as casino worker Sequoia Kayo told the FT’s Aime Williams that they were better off financially under Trump:

“Under Biden, everything is more expensive,” she said. “I’m absolutely going to vote for Trump. Trump made it better for us, he opened up employment and made it much more reasonable for us to go shopping.”

Aime also talked to some Biden 2020 voters who won’t be voting for Harris, as well as those who stayed at home in the last election, but plan to turn out for Trump this year. 

“These last four years have been bad for the economy and for living conditions,” said Heman Santos, a 22-year-old construction worker who voted for Biden in 2020 but is now considering voting for Trump in November.

Yet throughout the state, there are signs that Harris’s economic message is catching on: Jaylai Logan, a 21-year-old mother of a one-year-old with a second child on the way, thinks greedy companies and opportunistic landlords are the source of her financial struggles.

Nevada has gone blue in the past four elections, boosted largely by a growing Latino population, but it is among the tightest races: Harris has a mere 0.5 percentage-point lead in the state, according to the FT’s poll tracker.

Datapoints

Nationally, Harris has maintained her polling advantage over Trump on economic stewardship — but it’s a small one.

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Interestingly, despite the fact that voters trust Harris over Trump to manage the economy, more of them think they will be somewhat or much better off financially with Trump as president.

Forty-four per cent of registered voters said they trusted Harris’s handling of the economy, versus 42 per cent who trusted Trump more, according to the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll.

The vice-president did better among voters who watched last week’s face-off: 48 per cent of those who said they watched all or part of the debate said they trusted Harris more to manage the economy. Almost 75 per cent of survey respondents tuned in. Trump had the advantage with voters who didn’t watch.

This new data suggests Harris is distancing herself from Biden (who was not popular with voters on economic grounds) without putting forth a different agenda. She has been focusing her message on lowering the high cost of living, and our poll showed that voters trust Harris over Trump by a 1-point margin to lower the costs of things like groceries and petrol.

Voters also think Harris is a better steward for the middle class by a wide margin (49 per cent to 36 per cent), as well as for blue-collar workers (43 per cent to 36 per cent). Trump was viewed as better for corporate interests (64 per cent to 20 per cent) and the wealthy (67 per cent to 19 per cent).

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Viewpoints

• Is this a winning US economy for the Democrats? Soumaya Keynes talks to Biden’s top economist on The Economics Show podcast. [Free to listen]

• Elaine Godfrey explains how the election denial mindset works as Trump allies in Georgia work to change the swing state’s rules. (The Atlantic) 

• As Harris campaigns on making childcare more affordable, columnist Patti Waldmeir calls on employers to be part of the solution. 

• The FT editorial board thinks the Fed should go with the larger half-point rate cut at this week’s policy-setting meeting, the last before election day.

• Harris is at risk of losing swing states because she is not talking enough about manufacturing, says global business columnist Rana Foroohar. [Available for Premium subscribers]