Kamala Harris wins over voters on the economy
This is an on-site version of the US Election Countdown newsletter. You can read the previous edition here. Sign up for free here to get it on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Email us at electioncountdown@ft.com
Happy Tuesday and welcome to US Election Countdown! Today, let’s dive into:
Harris gains voters’ trust on the economy
Arab-American voters remain wary
IRA projects beset by delays
More voters trust Kamala Harris to handle the US economy than Donald Trump, a marked shift in voter sentiment since Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid.
Forty-two per cent of voters said they trusted Harris on economic matters compared with 41 per cent who put their faith in Trump, according to the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll [free to read]. Harris ranked 7 percentage points higher than Biden did in July.
The August results represent the first time our survey has shown the Democratic presidential candidate leading Trump on the economy since the poll began.
Though recent market tumult and cooler than expected data have shown that Harris is still vulnerable to voters’ economic pessimism — which significantly influenced perceptions of Biden — there’s room for her to distance herself from the president. Sixty per cent of respondents said she should break away completely from his economic policies or “make major changes” to them.
She also has a higher approval rating than Biden: 46 per cent of registered voters said they approved of the job she was doing as vice-president, compared with 41 per cent who approved of Biden’s performance.
“The fact that voters were more positive on Harris than on Biden . . . says as much about how badly Biden was doing as it does about how well Harris is doing,” said Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.
But it’s not all good news for the vice-president.
Voters still rank inflation as their primary concern, and Trump continues to attack Democrats for the soaring cost of living under the Biden administration.
The Republican also did better than Harris on specific economic topics, particularly trade: 43 per cent of voters trusted him more to handle economic relations with China, whereas only 39 per cent preferred Harris.
Campaign clips: the latest election headlines
Trump told Elon Musk that internal “enemies” were “more dangerous” than foreign adversaries such as Russia and China in a two-hour conversation on X that was delayed by glitches on the social media platform.
A New York state Supreme Court judge ruled that Robert F Kennedy’s petition to be on the state’s ballot was invalid, saying Kennedy used a “sham” address. (NYT)
A pro-Trump super pac is preparing a $100mn advertising blitz in swing states over the next few weeks. (Politico)
The FBI is investigating the Trump campaign’s allegations that some of its internal emails were hacked, blaming Iran. (AP News, FT)
Harris has backed a policy first proposed by Trump: eliminating taxes on tips. (CNN, FT)
Behind the scenes
Though Harris has galvanised key Democratic voting blocs who were unconvinced by Biden, those who consider the war in Gaza as the defining election issue are wary of the party’s nominee [free to read].
Many such voters are clustered in the south-east of Michigan, where there is a large Arab-American population. There is a real worry these crucial swing state voters could stay at home on election day.
The FT’s James Politi recently took a trip to Dearborn, Michigan, where he met 24-year-old Fatima, who said Harris might “possibly” be better than Biden, but that she would hold off making a decision until she sees how things play out in the region over the coming weeks.
“If we can give the Palestinians hope or relief, that’s the only reason I would vote for her,” Fatima told James.
Harris has not endorsed a shift away from Biden’s Israel policy — which has seen significant criticism in the Dearborn area — but has distanced herself from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. She has said her commitment to Israel’s security is “unwavering”, but she will not “remain silent” in the face of Palestinian suffering.
“Most of our community leans towards the Democratic party but most of them are feeling like they don’t want to vote,” Abir, an older woman outside a local Dearborn grocery store, told James. She added that she regrets voting for Biden in 2020 and has “no idea” what she will do in November.
Datapoints
About 40 per cent of big-ticket investments in US manufacturing from Biden’s overhaul of US industrial policy has been delayed or paused indefinitely, an FT investigation has found. The fate of these projects is even more uncertain with the prospect of a Trump win in November.
Biden’s marquee legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the Chips and Science Act together offered more than $400bn in tax credits, loans and grants to stimulate domestic cleantech and semiconductor supply chains. But about $84bn worth of its flashiest projects — each worth at least $100mn — have been delayed or put on hold, all against the backdrop of our high-stakes election.
The delays could make it harder for Harris to attract blue-collar voters, particularly in the Rustbelt. The region was meant to be a big beneficiary of the IRA, but campaigning on the Democratic administration’s record of delivering a manufacturing renaissance now proves tricky.
Interestingly, a majority of IRA-related funds have flowed to Republican-controlled congressional districts, despite the party’s lack of support for the bill on Capitol Hill. But the future of the investments — and the law overall — would be in doubt in a second Trump administration. The former president has vowed to “terminate” the IRA if elected.
Viewpoints
Trump and Musk “face desperate situations” that have their businesses embracing each other, however awkwardly, writes Sujeet Indap in his latest Lex column.
Tim Walz might be the best thing to happen to the Harris campaign, Rana Foroohar writes in our Swamp Notes newsletter. [Available for Premium subscribers]
Harris has no playbook to guide her as she seeks the highest office in a country that never imagined a Black woman as president. (NYT)
Despite the opportunities before them, both US political parties are struggling to connect with working class voters, writes Oren Cass.
The US political class shrugs its shoulders at the deep-seated problems in Latin America that prompt people to migrate, thus settling “to live with polycrisis on its doorstep”, writes Adam Tooze.
Democrats have stolen Trump’s momentum but could still mess it all up, notes the FT editorial board. Janan Ganesh agreed, saying that Democrats shouldn’t get ahead of themselves.
Comments